Even Money in Blackjack: Is It Worth Taking the Offer?

Ah yes, ‘would you like even money?’ Today we’re going to look at why the answer should always be no, and why the casino wants to offer you even money when you have a blackjack.

It’s a really simple equation to work out, and I’m going to show you why you should never take even money.

Well, okay, there is one time you might, but it’s still not the best play overall. But more on that later.

Once you’ve finished this article, you will know why you shouldn’t take even money, how the math works, why it only works when the casino pays you 3 to 2 for a blackjack, but never when they pay you 6 to 5.

Let’s jump right in . . .

What is Even Money in Blackjack

At some time in the past, you’ve probably found yourself in this situation – you have a blackjack, and the dealer is showing an Ace as their up card, and the dealer says to you, ‘would you like even money?’.

So what do you do? 

Is it a good idea to take the even money?  After all, it means you get paid whether the dealer has a blackjack or not, and isn’t that the goal?  To get paid?

Well, let’s take a closer look at whether it really makes sense.

What are the chances that the dealer has a 10-value card in the hole?

Let’s say you’re playing a 6-deck shoe and not counting the cards.

There are 312 cards in the shoe, of which 96 are 10-value cards.

(4 each of the 10s, Jacks, Queens, and Kings for all 6 decks = 4 x 4 x 6 = 96)

For easy math, let’s say it’s the first hand out, and there are five cards removed from the shoe.  Two Aces, your Queen, the dealer’s hole card and the burn card in the discard rack.

That means that there are 307 cards left, 95 of which are 10-value cards.  (You have one, and the extra ‘missing’ card in the discard rack is unknown)

That means that the chances of the dealer having a 10-value card in the hole is 95/307, which is 30.9%.

So 31% (for easy math!) of the time, the dealer will get a blackjack, and you won’t get paid.  Your blackjack will push – so no payout for you.

But the other side of that is that you will get paid 3 to 2 for your blackjack 69% of the time!

Almost 7 times out of 10 you will get paid.

It’s an easy calculation to help you make the decision:

Let’s say you have a $50 bet, and with 100 ‘dealer has an Ace up, do I take even money’ decisions, it would look like this:

Take Even Money – you get paid $50 when the dealer has an Ace: 100 x $50 = $5,000

With the same scenario, over 100 hands where you don’t take even money, you don’t get paid anything 31% of the time, but you get paid 1.5x your initial bet 69% of the time, and here’s what that looks like:

Don’t Take Even Money: 69 x $75 = $5,175

So you win $175 more by not taking the even money offer.

And overall, you come out $175 ahead.

And the reason is that taking even money is the same as making the Insurance bet.

We’re using a single deck to illustrate how it works, but it’s scalable and it’s always the same no matter how many decks are in play:

The dealer has an Ace up, and there are 13 possible cards in the hole.  4 of them are 10-value cards, and 9 of them are not.  So 4/13 times, the dealer will have a blackjack – and 9/13 times the dealer will not have a blackjack.

Which comes out to the same percentages, which are 30.77% blackjack, 69.23% no blackjack.

So taking Insurance is not a good bet for you to make. 

The House Edge on the Insurance bet is 7.39%, which is very high on a game that typically has a House Edge of 0.75% - in fact, the HA on the Insurance bet is approximately 10x the HA of the main game.

For a detailed look at how we get to those numbers, check out the Insurance bet guide. 

How Does Even Money Work?

The Insurance bet is a bet that the dealer will have a blackjack. 

Let’s say you have an initial $20 bet and you get dealt a blackjack and the dealer has an Ace. 

You are allowed to take up to 50% of your bet as Insurance, so you do.

Now you have a $10 bet on Insurance.

If the dealer has a blackjack, your initial $20 bet is a push and does not get paid, but your Insurance bet gets paid 2 to 1, which is $20.

If the dealer does not have a blackjack, your initial bet gets paid $30 – but your $10 Insurance bet loses, so your net gain is $20.

Either way, you win $20 for your $20 initial bet.

Why Doesn’t Even Money Work on a 6 to 5 Blackjack Game?

Here’s why:

If you have an initial bet of $20 and you get a blackjack on a 6 to 5 game, you will get paid $24. 

If you take Insurance, you can bet up to half of your initial bet, which is $10.

If the dealer has a blackjack, you get paid $20 for the Insurance bet and push the initial bet. 

Which is Even Money.

But if the dealer doesn’t have blackjack, you get paid $24 for your initial $20 bet, but lose the $10 Insurance bet, so your net gain is $14 – not $20.

So It’s Not Even Money.

Should You Take the Even Money Offer?

Ordinarily, the answer is going to be no, every time. 

It’s not mathematically the best way to play, ever.

But there is one instance where you might want to consider it.

Let’s say you’ve set  yourself a win limit of $200. 

You bought in for $100, starting with a $10 initial bet and playing a Paroli system with a ‘I’m going to win 5 hands in a row and then go back to my $10 bet’ system. 

Which means you need to have at least $300 to have met your goal for the day.

Your situation is you’ve won four hands in a row, and now you have a $160 bet.

(And yes, it really does add up that quickly when playing the Paroli.  That’s why I love it!).

You have a blackjack – but the dealer has an Ace up!

OH NO!

If I take even money, I will have $320, plus whatever’s left from my initial $100 buy in.  Well ahead of the $200 winning limit I set myself.

But if I don’t take even money and the dealer has a blackjack, I will push my $160 bet, which means I must put it at risk again for another hand.

And there’s no way to tell how that’s going to turn out.

What if I get a pair of Aces?  I don’t have enough bankroll to split them.  What if I get dealt an 11 and the dealer gives herself a 5 as an up card.  I don’t have enough to double down on the perfect double down opportunity.  What if I get dealt a hard 16 and the dealer has a King as their up card? Yikes!

And if I do take even money, I walk away winning at least $200, my goal for the day.

In that circumstance, I would take the even money and call it a day. 

But your ‘no Insurance ever’ mindset may not allow you to take even money, even in this juicy situation.

Expert's Advice

My overall advice is never take the Even Money offer.  Ever.

Except in the one circumstance that I’ve listed above.

Of course, if you look at your bankroll, your lifetime bankroll and your session bankroll, you should never take Insurance even with the situation I listed above, because the big picture is you don’t take Insurance, which is what Even Money represents.

But for me, it would seem crazy to put your money at further risk when you have made your session goal.

Conclusion

So there you have it – Even Money is just like Insurance, and we don’t take Insurance because it’s not the best way to play.

And as always, good luck out there.