For the last two hundred years or so, roulette has been one of the most popular games played in casinos worldwide. In that time there have been many systems that people have used to try and overcome the House Advantage built into the game, and none have been particularly successful.
One of those systems, which comes with a tie-in to one of the most popular heroes of pop culture is the James Bond system, named after the fictional English super-spy, James Bond.
It’s an interesting and unusual system, requiring a $200 bet spread across three different types of bets.
It came to our attention in Ian Fleming's first Bond novel, "Casino Royale", published in 1953. It was then included in the ‘Diamonds Are Forever’ Bond movie of 1971, and now it’s quite well-known across the roulette playing world.
Even though it was not used in the 2006 movie ‘Casino Royale’ because Texas Hold ‘Em Poker was front and center in the public eye at that time, it was definitely Sean Connery’s Bond who made it popular.
It’s a flat betting system, which consists of a $200 total bet, played on a European single zero wheel.
Bet Structure
A single bet of $200 may be a little more than you’re comfortable with, so it’s a very scalable bet, and could easily be reduced to $14 on High, $5 on the 13/18 Six Line, and $1 on Zero, for a total bet of $20.
And then it could be doubled to $28, $10 and $2 for a total bet of $40 if that works better for your budget than the $20.
The largest bet, $140, is placed on the even money bet, High. It is the most likely to hit of all the bets at 48.65% but pays the least overall.
The next highest bet is the $50 Six Line bet. With a 16.22% chance of hitting, it is less likely to hit than the bet on High but pays more if it does hit.
The $10 bet on the zero is the least likely to hit, with a probability of 2.7% on a European single zero wheel but pays the most at $350.
With the $200 bet, the odds of each bet hitting and the profit realized are as follows:
1. 19-36 ‘High’ bet: 48.65% chance, +$80 profit
2. Six-line 13/18 bet: 16.22% chance, +$100 profit
3. Zero bet: 2.7% chance, +$160 profit
4. No winners: 32.43% chance, -$200 loss
1. With a $140 bet on High, if it wins, the payout is $140, so the player ends up with $280. With a $200 initial bet, the profit is $80.
2. With a $50 bet on the Six Line, if it hits, the total payout is $250, and the player recoups their initial bet ends up with $300, for a total profit of $100.
3. With the $10 bet on zero, if it hits the total payout is $350 and the player’s $10 bet is returned, for a total profit of $160.
We decided to run a simulation of 1,000 spins, including 5 players. The bets were scaled down to $140, $50, and $10.
There are four possible outcomes for the simulation:
The simulation showed some interesting results. In theory, all the players should lose over time as the James Bond Strategy doesn’t alter or overcome the House Advantage.
While short-term gains are possible, continued play typically results in losses, making this strategy risky in the long run.
The conclusion here is that the James Bond strategy leads to significant fluctuations, with players experiencing both large gains and substantial losses.
The James Bond Strategy is an interesting speed bump on the road to ‘roulette strategies that work’. It was invented by a writer of popular fiction and then expounded upon by the filmmakers Messrs. Broccoli et al.
Unfortunately, it is completely fictional and unsupported by any kind of mathematical evidence that would support it’s efficacy.
Indeed, Cubby Broccoli and Roger Moore would often play craps together at the Claremont Club in London when I was a dealer there, and they showed no inclination to be systems players at all. Ever.
Over the long-term, there is zero evidence that the strategy works at all.
To calculate the expected loss, it is a simple matter of multiplication, addition and subtraction, as follows:
Which calculates out to a significant loss overall of $540 per 1,000 spins.
Total winnings = $5,946
Total losses = 324.3 x $20 = $6,486
So over 1,000 spins, the overall loss would be $540 per player
The James Bond strategy doesn’t have any mathematical justification to support it’s use.
By covering 67.57% of the layout, it means that the player has covered 2/3 of the possible winning numbers. And if the player gets lucky by the winning numbers being part of his initial bet, he may win in the short term.
But overall, the House Advantage is still working against him, and will ultimately prevail.
Let’s compare the Martingale Strategy with the James Bond Strategy. The Martingale is a negative progression, and it requires that the player doubles their bet if they experience a loss, and then reverts to the original wager once they win a bet.
The Martingale is a dangerous system in that it has two profound disadvantages, and they are that it needs a significant bankroll to play a Martingale, and there is always the possibility of running into the table maximum before hitting the winning bet that returns all the player’s losses to him.
The good part of the James Bond system is that it does not require any increase in the amount bet. The same bet is always played, which means the player has much more control over staying within the budget, and the expenditure of the bankroll.
The D’Alembert system is similar to the Martingale in that it is a negative progression, but the base unit bet should not be more than 1% of the total bankroll.
After a loss, the D’Alembert player increases their bet by a set amount, instead of doubling it like the Martingale.
For example
The D’Alembert may start with a $5 bet, and after a loss the bet is increased to $10. Then another loss means the bet is increased to $15. A win means the bet is reduced by $5 down to $10, and another win would have the bet reduced again to $5.
The D’Alembert Strategy is a flat progression in that you increase your bet after a loss or decrease your bet after a win by a set amount.
The D’Alembert is less risky than the Martingale because the Martingale can get very expensive very quickly, whereas the D’Alembert progresses into the higher amounts much more slowly, and you’re much less likely to run into the table maximum than with the Martingale.
This also means that you can play the D’Alembert with a much smaller bankroll.
Once you have spent a little time around the various versions of the roulette game, you quickly learn that the game to play, whichever strategy you are playing, is always the one with the European wheel.
The House advantage on the single zero wheel is 2.7% and can be as low as 1.35% with the addition of the En Prison or La Partage rule when compared to the American wheel with it’s double zero and 5.26% House Advantage.
The single zero wheel outperforms the double zero wheel no matter what strategy you are using and becomes even more cost-effective when you add the ‘En Prison’ or the ‘La Partage’ rule to the mix.
Quite simply, the European Wheel is just a better deal.
The James Bond bet is always split into three bets:
Once you have decided what your budget is and how much to bet, the bet remains unchanged if you continue to win. It may be that your bet is $200, which is $140 on High, $50 on the Six Line, and $1 on the zero.
That may be too rich for your budget, so your bet becomes $20, which is $14 on High, $5 on the Six Line and $1 on the zero. And there are different levels of each, so you may decide to go with a $40 bet, or $80 and so on.
It’s when you lose a bet that you’re faced with a decision. Do I increase my bet with another strategy like the Martingale to try and recoup my losses?
And that’s a good question.
Because the Martingale can be quite dangerous, particularly if you start with a $200 bet. If you experience 3 James Bond losses in a row, you will find yourself with an $800 bet and be in $1,400 after only 3 spins.
The pros of the James Bond Strategy are that it is a simple system to use. There is no math calculation required, and the bet gives you coverage of 67% of the numbers available. It is highly scalable, so can be used by players with a small or large budget.
The cons are that it is a high-risk strategy and can get you in deep with the potential for some significant losses. In addition to that, it is not flexible at all, and is not well-suited to be used as a long-term strategy.
The James Bond Strategy has an attractive background and may appeal to the players who are fans of the James Bond catalog. As far as the math supporting it as a viable means of beating the House Advantage on even a European wheel, it simply doesn’t add up. There is no mathematical evidence supporting it as a good strategy to play.
As always, if you find yourself gambling and it’s not fun anymore, or worse yet, you are gambling with your monthly food or mortgage money, it’s time to take a step back and think about what you’re doing.
We have some fine responsible gaming articles in the academy, written by experts, that will help you if you find yourself getting in over your head.
The James Bond Roulette Strategy cannot overcome the House Advantage on a roulette game. It is a fun and entertaining way to spend a little time on a roulette game, but make no mistake, it has no practical way to protect your bankroll, or even offer you an opportunity to win in the short-term and certainly not in the long-term.
My recommendation is that you look it over and make the decision that it is simply an interesting footnote in the history of gambling with a tie-in to the suave English secret agent, and don’t play it except as a way to have a bit of fun with money you can afford to lose.
And good luck.
No problem, just asking for some advice as to what game should I play.
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