Welcome to the complete guide on Baccarat strategy. Casino insider Peter Nairn shares his expert tips and insights on increasing your chances of winning at this popular casino game.
With years of experience working in the industry, Peter will provide an in-depth look at the rules and gameplay of Baccarat, as well as his own tried-and-tested strategies for maximizing your profits.
Whether you're a beginner or a seasoned player, this guide is an essential resource for anyone looking to improve their skills and discover the best Baccarat strategy.
Here’s what you’ll learn:
So, without further ado, let’s dive right in.
Baccarat is a simple game, requiring only one decision about where to bet:
Player or Banker?
There are good reasons why it's been a popular casino game for hundreds of years, and those are that it doesn't require a comprehensive knowledge of the odds or the rules and that it's a fun social game where you can enjoy a couple of hours with your friends while playing the game.
I highly recommend checking out my complete guide if you want to master the baccarat rules.
In Baccarat, there are a few special rules that apply and you should always consider:
Third Card Rule
The third card rule in baccarat is a set of predetermined conditions that determine whether the player and/or banker is dealt an additional card during the game.
The rule is based on the total value of the first two cards dealt to each hand, and it aims to create a more even playing field between the player and banker.
The third card rule is an essential aspect of the game and can significantly impact the outcome of each hand.
D = Draw third card
S = Stand on two cards
Download the Third Card Rule Chart
The Tie Bet
You can make one other bet (but really shouldn't) on the traditional game: the Tie bet.
With a House Advantage of 14.36%, it is a strong bet for the casino, so you should avoid it.
Baccarat Side Bets
Side bets are bets that the casino adds to the game, supposedly to make the game more exciting for the players, but in fact, the side bets are there merely to increase the casino's House Advantage against the player.
A few more bets on the newer versions of the game have become very popular in casinos across the US, Canada, and the Caribbean.
More on those later.
This guide provides some guidance to players who want to know more about this game and the most intelligent way to play it.
So, will you learn the best baccarat strategy?
There aren't too many strategies to follow with Baccarat. The short version is that the best baccarat strategy is to bet on Banker and hope for a hot shoe.
Sad to say, there is no guaranteed winning Baccarat strategy.
While it's true that there are folks all over the internet who claim to have a guaranteed winning baccarat strategy (and for only $49.95, they will sell it to you), you will find that none of these strategies are guaranteed. They are all subject to the wishes of the Baccarat gods all the time!
The short answer is 'No.'
The 'gambler's fallacy' is strong on this one – many gamblers believe that the results of a game must ultimately return to an equal number of wins for two opposite bets.
They believe that if there have been 10 winning Banker bets in a row, there is a greater chance of 'Player' showing up on the next hand.
Not true!
The cards and shoes don't know they just had 10 Bankers in a row.
The odds of 'Player' showing up on the next hand are precisely the same as for all the previous 10 (50? 100? 1,000?) hands.
So why do the casinos provide the electronic scoreboard that tracks the winning hands of the shoe?
And the paper scorecards and pencils?
Because the players like to think that the shoes all follow a trend.
And that by tracking the trend, they can gain some insight into what's coming next in the shoe.
All nonsense! The shoe doesn't follow any pattern at all. Ever!
What the players are looking for is a trend they can recognize.
There are 5 trends that reveal themselves as the shoe progresses:
- Big Road;
- Small Road;
- Bead Road;
- Big Eye Boy;
- Cockroach Pig.
And as much as the players want a trend, there is never one.
And the casinos providing the scoreboard to promote the trends?
Just another way to... assist the players in making their betting decisions.
Because the casino makes its profits based on the total number of bets made.
The more money in action, the more money the casino makes.
It's a pretty easy formula!
While there is no guaranteed "winning" strategy, let's explore 10 of the most popular baccarat strategies and systems:
1. The Baccarat Martingale
This is undoubtedly the best-known system. It's a negative progression system that is easy to understand and play.
Start by betting one unit on either Player or Banker.
- If you win, bet one unit again.
- If you lose, bet two units. If you win, go back to betting one unit.
- If you lose the two units, double your bet again, betting 4 units this time.
- If you lose, bet 8 units.
- And so on, keep doubling your bet until you win, and then go back to betting one unit.
In theory, you keep doubling your bet until you win. This is fine, until you run into the table maximum – and then you're behind and can't catch up.
Not so good.
2. The Super-Martingale Strategy
This winning baccarat strategy works precisely the same as the Martingale, but instead of doubling your bet after losing, you add an additional amount after every loss.
Let's say you will add two extra units every time you lose.
- Your second bet would be 2 units plus the 2 additional units, 4 units total.
- If you lose, you will double your bet to 8 units, plus an additional 2 units, 10 units total.
- If you lose, you double your bet to 20 units plus the additional 2 units, 22 units total.
- If you lose again, you double your bet to 44 units, plus the 2 additional units, 46 units total.
As you can see, you can get into deep water very quickly with this strategy.
The regular Martingale gets you to 16 units on your 5th bet. The Super Martingale gets you to 46 units on your 5th bet.
The other side of that is on the regular Martingale, you would be betting 16 units to win 1 unit.
On the Super Martingale, you would be betting 46 units and win 13 units if you win after 5 bets.
Keep in mind
The real issue with the Super-Martingale is that you put a lot of your bankroll in action to win a relatively small amount when you finally win.
You're better off betting a positive progression like the Paroli System and betting the casino's money back at them instead of risking your bankroll.
3. Side with the Banker
The Banker bet has the lowest House Advantage on the game.
At 1.06%, it is one of the lowest House Advantage bets in the entire casino!
It's a good strategy to play Banker all night and let the chips fall where they may! When paired with the Paroli, it can be a powerful system to play.
The downside is that as your bet increases and wins, you must pay the 5% commission on each winning Banker bet.
4. Focus on Pair Bets
The Player Pair and Banker Pair bets have a high return on your initial bet with a payout of 11 to 1.
Suited pairs pay even more – one side bet offers 25 to 1 if you hit a suited pair.
However, with a House Advantage of 10.36%, the Pair bets are not great.
You may want to just bet the Pairs bets if you like the thought of getting paid 11 to 1 or 25 to 1, even though it's not a great bet.
5. The Baccarat Fibonacci
The Fibonacci sequence is a classic strategy that has been around for centuries.
You add the last two numbers in the sequence to determine the next one.
Your first bet is 1 unit. If you lose, you bet the next number in the sequence.
And if you lose again, you add the first two numbers and bet the sum of those two numbers.
Like this:
1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, etc.
When you win, you go back two numbers in the sequence.
6. The ‘Bond . . . James Bond’ Strategy
James Bond is famously a successful casino player who usually plays Baccarat.
You always bet 20 units like this:
- Bet 14 units on the Banker bet
- Bet 5 units on the Player bet
- Bet one unit on the Tie
It's an exciting strategy that will hedge against a bad run in the shoe and often keeps him in action for a long time (or at least until the beautiful heroine of the movie shows up . . .)
7. The 3 2 System
The 3 2 system is simple and easy to follow. You choose a side, either Banker or Player, and determine which unit you want to use.
Let's say you choose a $5 unit.
You bet 3 units on the Player, 2 on the Player Pair, or 3 on the Banker, and 2 on the Banker Pair.
That's the whole system.
It is straightforward and equivalent to throwing yourself at the mercy of the Baccarat gods.
You can vary your bets so that if you bet the 3 units on Banker, you bet the 2 units on the Player Pair, or bet the 3 units on Player and 2 units on the Banker Pair.
This gives you a little cover if you've bet the Player Pair, the Banker shows up, and so on.
8. The 1 3 2 6 System
In the 1-3-2-6 gambling system, the winning bet sequence is 1, 3, 2, 6.
- If a bet wins, you go to the next bet in the sequence.
- If a bet loses, you return to the first bet of the sequence.
If you win all four bets, you return to the start and have made 12 units profit.
Things that make you go 'Hmm.'
The accompanying narrative that comes with this system says that 'you may make a tidy profit in the short term, but will lose in the long term' and that the best way to win is 'to quit while you're ahead.'
Well, really?
Isn't that the advice we should all follow with every casino game devised?
The downside of the 1 3 2 6 system is that on the fourth bet, you're betting all your profits back on one bet.
And if you lose that fourth bet, you end up even, even though you won three bets in a row.
I've seen other variants of this strategy listed as the 1 3 2 4 strategy. Some players swear by this strategy. It's not my favorite, that's for sure.
9. The Reverse Martingale also called the Paroli system
The Paroli or Reverse Martingale is a positive progression; you increase your bet as you win. I would start on the Player, as I want to avoid paying a lot of commission if I hit a solid win streak.
- You start with a 1-unit bet. If you lose, you continue betting 1 unit until you win.
- Once you win, you bet 2 units.
- And if that wins, you bet 4 units and so on, until you've won five in a row.
Let's say your unit is $10.
After 5 wins, doubling up after each win, you would have $320.
To win that much, you need to win five in a row. And while that doesn't happen often, it's not in the least bit unusual to see it on a Baccarat game.
If that's too strong for you, winning 3 in a row happens more frequently, and with a $10 unit, you would have $80 from your initial $10 bet.
The Paroli works best because you are only ever betting one unit of your own money, unlike the Martingale, where you can be betting many units of your own money to win one unit.
The beauty of the Paroli is that you repeatedly bet the casino's money back at them. It's like compounding interest on a mortgage.
And it grows fast once you lock into a winning streak.
10. Side with the Player
It's well-known that the Banker hand has a slight advantage over the Player hand. It is a tiny advantage; the HA on the Banker is 1.06%, and the HA on the Player is 1.24%. The difference is 0.18% - a small amount.
So it may make sense to you to just bet the Player and don't worry about the 5% commission, as you'll never be paying it.
When paired with the Paroli, it can be a compelling way to play to win.
Bonus Strategy: The Mix Up
Okay – I know this is eleven, but who's counting?
The mix up is an interesting baccarat strategy:
- Choose an amount you're comfortable betting on each type of bet.
- Let's say your unit is $10, and you're willing to bet $50 on each of the main two bet types.
- You make 5 bets of $10 on the Banker bet. Any money you win gets put to the side.
- Then you make 5 bets of $10 on the Player side. Again, any money you win gets put to the side.
- Then you choose the next unit amount - say $2, with a $20 total bet on the Tie, then $20 on the Player Pair, and then $20 on the Banker Pair.
Once you've made all the bets, and put any winnings to the side, you start the overall plan again.
This is a shotgun method to Baccarat.
It's a system that gets you in action and is definitely luck-based.
Not my favorite – but it may be yours!
Baccarat is a very popular game with Asian players, and over the years, some traditions have become the social standards of the game.
1. Everyone bets with the big player
This one came about because the player who has the largest bet on either the Banker side or the Player side is the one who turns over the cards for that side.
And the entire group will follow that player.
It's unusual for a player to bet against the big player because being the contrarian is seen as bringing bad luck to the big player and, by extension, everyone else at the table who is betting with him (or her!).
2. Talking to the cards, and/or rotating the cards
Baccarat players can be very superstitious.
One of the superstitions is that the player can bring out the cards he wants by talking to the cards or rotating them before exposing them to the table.
This is similar to the other games where the players encourage the casino gods to give them the outcome they're looking for.
The most common request is for the card to be a 'monkey,' the players' slang name for a face card.
3. Squeezing the cards
The big player will often 'squeeze' the cards to reveal their value slowly to enhance the game's suspense.
Squeezing is slowly bending the cards back to reveal as little information as possible but still being able to recognize what the card is. This is done one card at a time.
Sometimes revealing just the pips on one side of the card or a tiny piece of the letter A, J, Q, or K will be enough to identify its value.
For example, a card with no pips on the long side must be an Ace, a 2, or a 3-value card.
Exposing the cards in this way also indicates that the player has some control over what card is being revealed.
Of course, they don't, but they like the feeling that perhaps they do.
5. Don't sit in position 4
Each designated player position on a Baccarat table is numbered.
No Asian player will ever sit in spot 4, because 4 is considered an unlucky number. After all, it sounds like the Mandarin word for 'death.'
It's such a strong superstition that I've never seen a player's spot marked with the number 4. The numbering always skips from 3 to 5, like there never being a 13th floor in some hotel elevators.
6. Feng Shui is Your Friend
A casino with a large Asian clientele will consider the feelings of their Asian players.
When I was the Director of Table Games at Morongo Casino and Resort and Spa, I wanted to reorganize our High Limit room layout to make it easier to staff and open and close the games more efficiently. I wanted to add a $100 minimum Pai Gow Poker table.
We consulted a Feng Shui expert to ensure we weren't upsetting the 'Harmony' of the room by making the moves we were contemplating.
When we remodeled the Baccarat room at one casino I was at, we saw a marked decrease in the play.
Try as we might, we couldn't work out why the players didn't like the new room.
It wasn't until we asked one of our players that we found out that the Chinese Lions that we placed at the entry weren't simply decorative.
Their function in Chinese mythology was to protect the gold of the house's owner.
We had placed what we considered handsome decorative pieces, but in fact, we had said to our players, ' we're protecting our money from you.'
Once we removed them, our business went back to normal levels again.
Superstition? Yes, lots of that around the Baccarat tables.
While there have been instances where players have been able to cheat the baccarat game, it rarely happens nowadays.
Still, let’s explore 5 common ways to “cheat” at baccarat:
Card Counting
Card counting is a much-ballyhooed strategy in Blackjack, and can work on that game if you know what you're doing.
As an aside, counting cards is not cheating
In Baccarat, counting cards doesn't help you with the main game because there aren't any cards that favor the Banker or the Player and not the other.
In Blackjack, the high-value cards generally favor the player, and the low-value cards favor the casino.
Counting the shoe down in Baccarat can help you if you're making Pairs bets. There is also some information that you can count the Dragon 7 and Panda 8 bets on EZ Baccarat.
Again, to take advantage of the information, the players betting behavior makes it easy for the casino to recognize what's going on and take appropriate countermeasures to protect their game.
Key takeaway: Card Counting in Baccarat
As a general principle, counting cards in Baccarat is not very practical, and much more challenging to make it profitable than in Blackjack.
It also requires additional betting patterns that make it easy for the casino to recognize what you're doing, so only some (if any!) professional players count down Baccarat games.
False Shuffling
A false shuffle requires that the dealer is in on the scam.
It works because the dealer takes a large slug of the cards (perhaps a deck or more) from the discard rack and appears to shuffle them but doesn't actually shuffle them.
They shuffle the remainder of the decks around the slug, but don't shuffle the slug.
The players involved in the scam place the cut card to steer the slug to the front of the shoe.
Because many players track their hands in Baccarat, tracking the cards is not a behavior that raises any red flags for the casino.
Once the order of the cards coming out matches the known order of the slug, the cheating team bets the maximum on the known outcomes that are coming.
The advent of shuffle machines has done away with the false shuffle scam.
Card Marking
Baccarat can be susceptible to marked cards.
It is usually done with a substance called 'daub' that is very difficult to see unless you know what to look for (and sometimes can only be seen through special glasses worn for the purpose).
Daub is a tacky, waxy substance that the cheater keeps on their person. I've seen it hidden in a small pot behind a tie that one man was wearing, and also a woman who used it as eyeshadow to disguise that she had it.
The player seated next to the discard rack reaches around and marks the top card in the discard rack if it is an 8 or a 9. It can be quite simple to do, particularly on a Midi-Baccarat table.
Once the marked card is seen as the first card of the next hand coming out of the shoe, that card is going into the Player spot, so the cheats bet the maximum on the Player side, hoping to match their 8 or 9 with a face card for a natural winning hand.
These days, most casinos have installed a sleeve over the discard rack to prevent unauthorized access to the discarded cards.
Swapping Cards
Good sleight-of-hand cheats may try to change out the cards they have been dealt for winning cards.
It's difficult to do well, not least to get the casino's cards to put into the game.
It is often accomplished with a device concealed up the sleeve of a man's suit jacket, with an extending arm that delivers the cards to the hand of the cheat.
Video Camera up the Sleeve
When the shuffled decks are offered to the player to place the cut card, it's not unusual for the player to riffle through the shuffled decks with the cut card, seemingly looking for the lucky spot to place the cut card.
The cheater does this, but he uses the riffle motion to expose the cards to the camera that's concealed up his sleeve.
Using a computer to track the cards will alert the player when the sequence is being dealt from the shoe and then will inform the cheat about the upcoming hands and where to place the bets.
Here are 10 of my best-recommended tips that can help you increase your winning odds:
- Set a budget and stick to it
Not only do you need to have an amount you're willing to lose, but you must have an amount you're willing to win. Once you get there, go and cash out. - Avoid the Tie bet
The House Advantage on the Tie is a massive 14.36% - so it's not a bet you should make. - Take breaks and stay focused
Have a cup of coffee and something to eat, take a walk around the casino (most have a swimming pool, and that's where I usually take a break!). Some players even go out to their cars to take a power nap for half an hour. - Practice for free online
There are several free online baccarat games available. Use them to get a feel for the game so you understand what you're doing. Good to make your mistakes and test out a system you like when there's no money involved. - Understand the odds
Baccarat is a pretty simple game, and knowing that Player and Banker bets have some of the lowest HA in the entire casino can help you make good decisions about how to bet on the game. - Avoid betting systems that don't work
Many systems are out there, and most don't work. Choose carefully! - Know when to quit
When you've reached your 'I'm willing to win this much or lose this much' number, it's time to call it a day. - Don't chase losses
It's the worst thing to do. When it's time to go, it's time to go. DO NOT chase your losses. It's a recipe for disaster. - Learn from your mistakes
Pay attention to what you're doing right. And more importantly, what you're doing wrong. Mistakes are the price you pay for learning how to play – so learn from them, and don't keep making the same mistakes repeatedly. - Enjoy the game
Baccarat is a fun game. Enjoy playing it; if it stops being enjoyable, it's time to stop playing or find another game.
Never bet on the Tie. It has a very strong House Advantage against you.
The best strategy in Baccarat is to bet the Banker hand and just keep betting it.
If you have the bankroll for it, use a 'mini-Paroli' system, and keep betting your winnings back at the casino – I am pretty aggressive and go for a 5-hand winning streak.
If I'm successful, it can turn a $10 initial bet into more than $300.
Want to learn more ways to succeed at baccarat?
Check out my complete guide on how to win at baccarat and discover some insider tips that will help you change your view on how you can play the game.
Conclusion
Baccarat is a game of pure luck. You can follow numerous strategies if you would like to, but ultimately there isn't any one that is better than the others.
The question remains: Is using a winning baccarat strategy important?
Using a strategy isn't important at all.
It's pure luck, but you can be smart about how you play. Don't bet the Tie and bet the Banker consistently, and you won't go too far wrong with that strategy. Read more of my Baccarat Academy guides to discover the secrets of the game.
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