Baccarat Card Counting: Myths, Facts, and Winning Strategies

It’s a fact that card counting works very well in Blackjack.  But what about Baccarat card counting? Does it work? The short answer is - it depends.

Join expert baccarat dealer Peter Nairn in this guide as we explore:

• What is Card Counting in Baccarat? Understanding the Basics
• Differences between card counting in Baccarat and other games like Blackjack
• Top 3 Most Popular Card Counting Systems in Baccarat
• Does Card Counting Actually Work in Baccarat?
• Is Baccarat Card Counting Practical?
• Expert Advice: How to Win More With Baccarat

What is Card Counting in Baccarat? Understanding the Basics

As with all card games with multiple decks dealt from a shoe, and multiple hands played before the shoe is shuffled, counting down a Baccarat shoe is possible.

You can calculate whether the odds have changed in your favor by determining the composition of the remaining cards in the shoe.  

With all the cards in the shoe, there is no unusual advantage either way, but once some cards have been dealt, the advantage can change.  

And that’s what the card counters are tracking.

In Blackjack, the tens and aces are good for the players, and the low cards, 2 through 6 are good for the casino.  Keeping track of those cards will give you an advantage that can be exploited.  If lots of small cards have come out, it means that the deck is rich in tens and aces, which is good for the players. 

You can increase your bets accordingly.

Of course, the opposite is true, too.  If lots of high cards are out, it means that the decks that remain in the shoe are rich in the low cards, which is good for the casino.  

And you should reduce your bets.

Differences between Card Counting in Baccarat and Other Games Like Blackjack

It doesn’t work that way in Baccarat.  Because the high and low cards favor both the Player and the Banker equally, tracking them in the same way that Blackjack players do doesn’t help you.

Can you count cards in Baccarat?  Yes you can.  

But it’s different to how you do it in Blackjack. The easiest way to explain it is to look at the effects of removing individual cards from the deck.

This table is from gambling guru Michael Shackleford’s site ‘the Wizard of Odds’, and it shows the changes to the Expected Value (EV) for the Banker hand, the Player hand, and the Tie when one card is removed from an 8-deck shoe.  

The results were run in a computer simulation of 10 million hands.

Top 3 Most Popular Card Counting Systems in Baccarat

Let’s explore 3 of the most popular card counting systems for baccarat:

1. The Basic Counting System: Explanation and How to Use It

By reviewing the table above, you can see that when a low card leaves the deck, it is good for the Player bet, and if a high card leaves the deck, it is good for the Banker bet.

If we assign a +/- value to all the cards, we can start to track when things start to favor one side or the other by using the Running Count.

I think the Running Count is an easier system to employ than a True Count system, because often the Baccarat shoe will have a cover on it and the discard rack will have a sleeve, thus obscuring the cards remaining in the shoe and those already dealt.

Once you try Baccarat counting, you will immediately be struck by how easy it is to do compared to Blackjack counting.  Each hand contains a maximum of six cards, and they are exposed for the entirety of the time the dealer is taking the losing bets and paying the winning bets.

Very simple to do!

And here’s how to count cards in Baccarat:

At the beginning of a new shoe, the Running Count is 0.

As the cards are dealt, add or subtract the following values to the Running Count:

• Card value is 1 to 4 points = +1
• Card value is 5 to 8 points = -1
• Card value is 9 and 0 points = 0

Simply follow the Running Count and when it is at -4 or less, bet the Player.  

For any other count, bet the Banker. 

It really is that simple.

And if you utilize this strategy, you will be betting Player 28% of the time, and Banker 72% of the time. 

The House Advantage against you is reduced when betting Player by 0.18%, and when betting Banker by 0.07% vs. a player who is not counting down the shoe.

That’s the good news.

The bad news is that you can expect to win less than a dollar per shoe.  That’s from Ed Thorp.  

Having said that, there is a more complex way to do it, which may give you a more accurate picture.  It’s complicated, and it involves the Bead Road.  

Explore my dedicated baccarat guide to discover how the traditional betting patterns work, using the Bead Road, the Big Road, the Big Eye Boy, the Small Road and the Cockroach Pig.  

It’s so accurate, that it will improve the House Advantage in your favor by 0.01%.

And yes, that 1/100th of 1 percent.  

You would probably have to play for a few years for it to make any difference to your win/loss.

And because it’s such a minor difference, I’m not even going to address it.  

It’s simply not worth your time to do it, and certainly not worth the extra effort in you learning how to do it.

2. Thorp’s Baccarat Card Counting System

Ed Thorp is a legend in the casino world. 

As the author of the book ‘Beat the Dealer’, the first book on counting cards, he literally changed the game of Blackjack.  Subsequently, he also developed a system for counting cards on Baccarat.

This system was relatively complex and required the player to utilize a different count depending on whether the player wanted to bet on Player or Banker.

For betting on Player

At the beginning of a new shoe, the Running Count is 0.

As the cards are dealt, add or subtract the following values to the Running Count:

• Card value is 2 and 3 points = -1
• Card value is 4 and 5 points = -2
• Card value is 6 and 9 points = +1
• Car value is 7 and 8 points = +2
• Card value is 10 and 1 = 0

For betting on Banker

• Card value is 2, 3 and 4 points = +1
• Card value is 5 points = +2
• Card value is 6, 8 and 9 points = -1
• Card value is 7 points = -2
• Card value is 10 and 1 = 0

Simply follow the Running Count and when it is at -4 or less, bet the Player.  

For any other count, bet the Banker.

3. John May’s Card Counting System for the Tie Bet

John May is the author of the two popular books, one on Baccarat, ‘Baccarat for the Clueless’, and one on Blackjack, ‘Get the Edge at Blackjack’.  

He has an interesting take on counting the Tie bet in Baccarat.

The premise is to add +1 for every odd card that is exposed.  

The reason is that if all the odd cards are gone, then the only possible hands that remain are 0, 2, 4, 6, and 8.  

Using +1 for every odd card, when your count is 160 or greater, the odds of a tie are doubled, meaning you have a 62% advantage on your bet.

And he’s definitely right about that:  62% is a huge advantage. 

He also recommends keeping track of the 0-value cards – so all the tens and face cards.  If 75% of the remaining decks are 10s or faces, he says it gives you a significant advantage for the Tie bet.

John May himself remarked that unfortunately, the conditions to make this 62% advantage bet occur once every 10,000 hands.  With a normal shoe containing about 80 hands, that’s 125 hours of play.  Or 15, 8-hour days.

I’m going to go out on a limb here and state that counting cards on Baccarat is a waste of time.

As Henry Tamburin, in his book ‘Winning Baccarat Strategies’ said ‘…counting cards in Baccarat is simply not worth the reader’s time…’

Does Card Counting Actually Work in Baccarat?

Can you count cards in Baccarat?  Yes you can.

Does it allow you to gain an advantage that you would not have if you weren’t counting?  Yes, it does.

However, it is also true that for the amount of work required and the rewards that baccarat counting brings you, it’s simply not worth the effort.

Learning to count Baccarat is easier than counting Blackjack, and using the flash card approach is just as effective as in Blackjack. 

But again, the rewards for counting Baccarat are simply so insignificant that it’s just not worth it.

Is Baccarat Card Counting Practical?

It is easy to count cards in Baccarat.  

The Player and the Banker hands are in the center of the table, and on a busy game they are exposed there for a couple of minutes while the dealer takes the losing bets and pays the winning bets.  

And there can only be a maximum of six cards in any given hand.

The downside is that you cannot use the baccarat count to improve your odds, because the drawing rules, both for the initial two cards and the third card rule, are fixed and cannot be changed based on the count.

And the number of decks in a baccarat shoe tend to limit the volatility of the shoe, so the highs and lows don’t occur as frequently as they do in Blackjack.

Expert Advice: How to Actually Win More With Baccarat

Baccarat is a very simple game.  

The player chooses to bet on Player or Banker, and the game is essentially a coin flip.

Potential Earnings and Limitations of Baccarat Card Counting

Several world-renowned experts have weighed in on the potential earnings from counting Baccarat and have come up with amounts as low as 70 cents per shoe, or per hour.  

With approximately 80 hands in an 8-deck shoe, it takes about an hour to deal a shoe in Baccarat.

Compared to counting Blackjack, card counting Baccarat offers nothing worth having for the same amount of work.

So, is it actually worth it to card count?

It’s simply not worth it to count a baccarat game.  A much better alternative is to count a Blackjack game.  

According to the successful card counters these days, the ideal is to count a Blackjack double deck game with liberal rules.  For a knowledgeable player with a decent bankroll, it’s possible to be making at least a hundred dollars an hour, and sometimes more if you can fly under the radar.

Weigh that against the 70 cents an hour on a Baccarat game, and the choice clearly becomes very easy to make.

Conclusion

There is no doubt that it is relatively easy to count cards in Baccarat.  The experts generally agree that not only is it possible, but that it’s easy to do.

What all the experts also agree on is that counting cards on Baccarat is a waste of time.  

The reason is that the amount of work and skill involved is way too much for the rewards that can be gained by doing so.

It is generally accepted that a would-be card counter would be much better off by focusing on counting down a Blackjack game, rather than wasting their time counting down a Baccarat game.

We have many articles and an in-depth library of materials in the Academy, that will help you become a more knowledgeable baccarat player. 

I highly recommend checking it out.