Are you ready to master the elegant game of baccarat? Pro Player Peter Nairn will show you how you can improve your odds and walk away a winner.
Baccarat, a popular casino game, has long been a favorite among high rollers and casual players alike.
Its relatively simple rules and the thrill of chance make it an enticing option for those seeking both entertainment and potential profit.
This guide will walk you through the steps necessary on how to win at baccarat and become a formidable player.
Here’s what you will learn:
Let’s get started right away!
Baccarat is a casino game that uses eight shuffled decks of cards from a shoe.
The Objective of the Game
The game's object is to choose whether the Banker or the Player bet will win.
The hand that wins is the one that is closest to 9.
Fun Fact
Baccarat players often refer to any face card by its nickname, "Monkey!"
In essence, Baccarat is a simple guessing game. It's just about betting which hand out of two will win.
Key Baccarat Terminology
Many general casino terms are used in a Baccarat game. To make reading the guide easier, I will include the most commonly used ones here:
- Action: refers to the total amount of money wagered either in one hand or over a particular period, such as during a specific shoe or what a player plays during their session.
- Banker bet: This is one of the three bets that can be made on a Baccarat table. The other two are Player and Tie. A winning Banker bet is charged a 5% commission.
- Bankroll: The amount of money you bring to play with.
- Commission: A winning bet on Banker is charged a 5% commission by the casino. This is because the Banker has a slightly better than 50% chance of winning, so the casino charges the commission to maintain their house edge.
- Face the cards: In some Baccarat games, the players can turn the cards over to reveal their value. This is called 'facing the cards.'
- Hand: A completed round of Baccarat, from when the cards are dealt to when the winner is paid and the used cards placed in the discard rack, sometimes called 'a coup'. It can also refer to the cards dealt to the Player or Banker.
- House Edge: The House Advantage, or the mathematical advantage that the casino has over the players. It is usually expressed as a percentage, and Baccarat has a low house edge.
- Natural: This is when the first two cards dealt to either the Player or the Banker total 8 or 9.
- Player bet: This is the second of the bets that the players can make. Like the Banker bet, it pays even money. There is no commission charged on a winning Player bet.
- Squeeze the cards: On some tables, the players can turn the cards over to expose them. This is called squeezing the cards.
- Tie bet: Players can bet on the Tie when both hands end up with an equal value. Ties usually pay 8 to 1.
Types of Bets in Baccarat
Baccarat has 3 main bets:
- the Banker bet;
- the Player bet;
- the Tie.
There are also several side bets, the most common of which are the Dragon 7 and the Panda 8.
These 2 side bets are specific to a Baccarat variant called EZ Baccarat, a game where the 5% commission has been eliminated.
There are several more side bets, such as the Perfect Pair and Egalite (pronounced ee gal ee tay), and so on.
Side bets generally have a very high house edge and should only be considered when they give you coverage for a significant bet on the opposite side.
EZ Baccarat is a Baccarat variant where the 5% commission on winning Banker bets has been eliminated. Whenever the Banker wins with a 3-card seven, it is a push. The Player and Tie bets still lose.
The game is significantly faster than a standard Baccarat game, and many players prefer it to the regular game.
EZ Baccarat's Dragon 7: The bet is won if the Banker has three cards with a total of seven that beats the Player hand. Pays 40 to 1.
EZ Baccarat's Panda 8: The bet is won if the Player has a three-card total of eight which beats the Banker hand. Pays 25 to 1.
Before you can dive into the more advanced techniques, you need to master the key baccarat rules:
Card Values And Their Point System
All the face cards and tens have a value of zero.
The Aces count as 1, and all the other cards have the value of their number, so a 2 is worth 2, and 5 has a value of 5, and so on.
Third Card Rule
The third card rule refers to whether the Banker's hand takes a third card based upon the Player hand's third card. It is easiest to remember it as a phone number, 667 – 547 – 427 – 3 'Stand on 8'.
Dealing procedures
The game is dealt using eight decks, and the dealer will insert a cut card into the back of the deck, cutting off 1/3 to ½ of a deck. The dealer then deals a two-card Player hand and a two-card Banker hand.
Depending upon the value of each hand, additional cards may be drawn to each side, with the winning hand being closest to 9.
In Baccarat, there are some commonly accepted advanced winning techniques. Let’s explore some of them:
Card Counting
Some players think card counting can give you an edge in Baccarat. While it can be a valuable asset in Blackjack, card counting is not useful in Baccarat.
The reason is that the cards have the same value for both Player and Banker in Baccarat. There are no cards that favor one side but not the other.
In Blackjack card counting, the high cards in the shoe favor the Player, and the low cards favor the casino.
There may be some advantage to counting the shoe down if you're betting on the Pairs bets. There have also been claims that you can count the Dragon 7 and Panda 8 bets on EZ Baccarat.
Keep in mind
To take advantage of the information provided when counting the Dragon 7 bet, for example, you must wait out almost the entire shoe before you have enough information to make the 'bet it/don't bet it' decision, and then if the decision is 'don't bet it,' you must wait out almost another entire shoe again and still only gain a minimal percentage advantage.
Additionally, this betting behavior makes it easy for the casino to spot and take appropriate countermeasures to protect their game.
Key Takeaway: Card Counting in Baccarat
Counting cards in Baccarat is not very practical. It is significantly more challenging to make it worthwhile than counting cards in Blackjack, and the potential rewards are less.
Consequently, very few (if any!) truly knowledgeable players bother counting down Baccarat games – it's simply not worth the effort it takes.
Betting Patterns
Many players are superstitious and believe that there are patterns within the shoe that reveal themselves as the shoe progresses.
The players seek the trend by watching how the shoe is performing and using that information to determine what's coming next based on how shoes in the past have performed.
What the players are looking for is a trend they can recognize.
Over many years, the players have determined that there are five ways to record the trends that reveal themselves as the shoe progresses.
The Five Trend Roads
There are five roads that can be viewed as two smaller groups.
One group contains roads called the Bead Road and the Big Road. The second group consists of three additional roads, sometimes called 'The Derivatives' because the patterns on them are derived from the Big Road.
The three derivatives are called the Big Eye Boy, the Small Road, and the Cockroach Pig
(Yes! Really).
The Bead Road (Sometimes Called The Bead Plate)
This shows the history of the shoe. The Bead Road is usually 12 to 18 columns wide and 6 rows deep.
This gives spaces for 72 to 108 hands; the typical baccarat shoe has between 78 and 82 hands.
Starting in the top left corner and going straight down, the first column represents the first six hands of the shoe.
The 7th hand is then recorded in the top space of the second column with the 8th hand directly below it.
This continues as the shoe progresses. The 13th hand will be in the top space of the third column, and so on, until the end of the shoe.
The results of the hands are marked as follows:
- A red circle represents a winning Banker hand
- A blue circle represents a winning Player hand
- A green circle represents a Tie
Some players like to include a number in the circles representing the value of the winning (or tied) hand.
Some players like to include a small red circle at 10 o'clock, which means there was a Banker
Pair in hand, and a small blue circle at 4 o'clock to represent a Player Pair in hand.
You may see a greyed-out triangle in the top right corner of the space which means the hand was won with a Natural.
In our first hand of the scoreboard shown above, the first hand was won with a Banker Natural, and there was a Player Pair.
- The 4th hand was won with a Player Natural.
- The 6th hand was a Tie.
The Big Road
This section of the scoreboard is again 6 rows deep but can be up to 40 columns wide. It presents precisely the same information as the Bead Road but in a different format.
Using the same color scheme, it records the three winning Banker hands vertically in the 1st column but then jumps to the top space in the 2nd column when the shoe changes to a winning Player hand.
And jumps again to the third column when the following hand (the 5th) reverts to a winning Banker hand.
The 6th hand is a Tie and is recorded on the Big Road as a 2 o'clock to 8 o'clock diagonal green slash. If there are more Ties, the total number can be written in the circle.
Let's talk about column 11 in this infographic because this is where it gets more interesting. Any time there are 7 or more winning hands in a row, either Player or Banker, it is called a Dragon, and the 7th hand represents the beginning of the Dragon Tail.
As you can see, there are 7 winning Banker hands in a row. If there were several more winning Banker hands, they would continue the Dragon Tail across the bottom of the road until there was a winning Player hand. The winning Player hand after a Dragon is recorded into the space at the top of the next column, the 12th column in this case.
Please note
A tie is merely recorded diagonally in green across the previous winning Banker or Player hand, and the Dragon continues until there is a winning opposite hand.
The Big Road Symbols
Below is another shoe, showing how multiple Dragon Tails are recorded on the Big Road.
How to Record Multiple Dragon Tails
As you can see, when you have multiple Dragon Tails, they don't overlap. They turn to the right before they overlap the previous Dragon Tail.
This Big Road above shows the first Dragon Tail starting with the 7th hand of the shoe and continuing through 12 winning Player hands, and then a second Dragon begins with the winning Banker hand at the top of column 5 and continuing through 8 winning Banker hands.
Altogether, there are three Dragons in a row on the road above. 1, 2, and 3 are all Dragons. 4 and 5 are not because they aren't at least 7 hands.
Follow The Dragon
The players always look for trends, and the Dragon is their favorite. By seeing a Dragon early, they can often put together a winning streak of several hands, and as you can see here, they can be many hands in a row.
When tied to a Paroli System, this can be very powerful.
In this example, if their betting unit is $25, and they got on the right side of this 12-hand Dragon at the third hand and then rode the Dragon for 8 hands, they would have $6,400, assuming they didn't run into the maximum limit. (Go ahead, make my day!)
Having said that, as much as the players want a trend, there is never a guaranteed one.
Each hand has the same chance of coming up as any other, so a pattern like this doesn't guarantee any streak.
Fun Fact
Knowledgeable casino staff will always allow the dealer to deal a couple of 'free hands,' where no one is expected to bet, so a trend in the shoe can begin to show itself before any of the players have to put their money in action.
The Big Eye Boy, the Small Road, and the Cockroach Pig
It used to be that the players would record just the shoe results manually and try to determine a trend from them.
The players in Macau weren't satisfied with that and decided to try to include a more detailed and intelligent way to record and review the information.
At first, some of the more detail-oriented players would make their variations to identify the trends.
Over time, these variations got whittled down to a few famous roads that people recorded manually.
With the advent of computerized scoreboards, it has become easier to create and display complex trend lines digitally, and many players no longer bother to track the shoe manually.
The three derivatives track the hands of the shoe based on patterns that can be identified in the Big Road. They are said to indicate how much volatility there is in the shoe.
Pro Tip
On the Big Eye Boy, the Small Road, and the Cockroach Pig, the red circles indicate predictability or stability, and the blue circles indicate volatility or chaos.
The Big Eye Boy uses hollow red and blue circles, the Small Road uses solid red and blue circles, and the Cockroach Pig uses diagonal red and blue slashes.
Keep in mind
The meaning of the colored circles changes depending upon which road you're looking at, and in the Big Eye Boy, the Small Road, and the Cockroach Pig, they do not indicate Banker and Player wins as they do on the Bead Road and the Big Road.
The derivative roads do not track Natural winners, Pairs, or Ties.
The "perfect" shoe consists of repeating patterns several times, ideally including two or three long Dragons.
The three derived roads do not start at the beginning of the shoe.
The Big Eye Boy
This is the first of the derivative roads, and it is used to determine how predictable the shoe will be.
Usually, two hands have been played before enough information is available to start the Big Eye Boy road. This means that the Big Eye Boy road starts following the hand after the first hand in the second column.
The Small Road
This is the second of the derivatives and is also used to determine the predictability of the shoe. The Small Road starts after the hand, following the first hand in the third column.
The Cockroach Pig
The Cockroach Pig is the third of the derivatives and starts recording information after the hand, following the first hand in the fourth column.
As you can see, it is quite a complex process to derive the information and record it on the three derivative roads, but you could think of it like a shotgun start in a gold tournament.
The three derivative roads all have different starting points to give a complete view of the information.
And even though many players continue to use the full scope of the roads, it is still true that every hand is a unique occurrence, unrelated to anything that has come before, and there is no trend.
Winning in Baccarat is closely related to your ability to manage your bankroll. Here are some tips to help you get started:
1. Setting a Budget
You must set a gambling budget and never gamble with money you can't afford to lose.
You may choose an amount for this session, for this week, or this month, but whatever time frame you use, you must stick to it.
When the money is gone, it's time to stop playing until you can start using the budget for your next gambling period. One thing that is common knowledge is you must decide how much you can afford to lose.
Many people don't consider 'how much am I willing to win.'
How many times have you heard a friend say, 'I was winning a couple of hundred and lost it all back'?
Decide how much you're going to be winning when you walk away.
And be realistic.
Saying, 'I'm going to buy in for $200 and quit when I'm winning $5,000' isn't very realistic, is it?
From a $200 buy-in, winning $200 is realistic, and maybe as much as $400, but choose a realistic number.
2. Bankroll Distribution
Once you've decided on your budget, you need to determine how much to bet to keep within your budget and still be able to play for as long as you want.
And that's a compromise; you want to keep the amount you bet low to make sure your bankroll can last the hours you want to play, but low bets mean that it is more challenging to make your 'I'm going to quit when I get to $X' number.
So what is the right course of action?
Let's say your bankroll for a 2-hour session of Baccarat is $1,000.Two hours of Baccarat play could be 2 complete shoes.
A typical shoe has about 80 hands – so your $1,000 must last for 160 hands.You can bet $1,000/160 = $6 per hand.
But that assumes you're going to lose every hand! Of course, you're not going to lose every hand.
Based on a typical House Advantage number of 1.06% for the Banker bets, you'll lose (let's be conservative) about 2 hands per 100, or 4 in 160.
So you will win 78 hands and lose 82 (78 + 82 = 160), not including Ties. If you bet $20 a hand, you will lose $80 in your 2-hour session.
What about $50 a hand? You will end up losing $200 in your 2-hour session.
And that doesn't include the 5% commission you'll pay if you bet Banker exclusively. At $20 a hand, your commission on winning bets is $1 per hand.
If you win 82 hands, that's $82 commission. At $50 a hand, that's $205 commission.Which is getting into real money now.
5% doesn't sound like much, but it can be more than you planned.
Consequently, you may want to bet on the Player side exclusively because there is no commission to be paid on the Player side.
And yes, I know that the house advantage is higher on the Player side, but it isn't significantly higher at 1.24% and is still not bad at all when you consider that the house advantage on Roulette can be 2.7%, more than double, or even 5.26% (4x!) on a double zero wheel.
I can't tell you how much to play to fit your 'compromise' playing position – only you know your risk tolerance, but you can see from the above numbers how you decide how much of your bankroll to play per bet.
3. Knowing when to Quit
Oh - such an easy one! Once you get to your 'I'm willing to win this much number,' walk away from the game.
It sounds much easier than it is and requires a lot of self-discipline, but that's what you must do. It's hard because you're thinking, 'I'm on a hot streak here. I should keep playing it'.
But that's how you become part of the 'I was winning and lost it all back' chorus. And, of course, if you get to your 'I'm willing to lose $X' number, you must walk away.
How do you maximize your winning chance? Here are some ways that may work for you:
Taking Advantage of Bonuses
The short version is if the casino offers you a bonus, take it.
The bonuses are usually free, or at least very generous, and why not?
Typical bonuses can be free play, match play coupons, promotional chips, free or discounted food, etc.
Using Comp Points
What are comp points?
'Comp' is a casino abbreviation for 'complementary,' which refers to 'stuff you are given for free because of the amount of money and time you play.'
It doesn't matter to the casino whether you win or lose – they're only concerned about the game(s) you play, how long you play, and how much money you put into action.
From that information, they can determine how much you're worth to the casino.
It's called 'theoretical win,' or 'theo' for short, and the casino uses a simple formula to determine how much they can give you as a comp.
Comps typically are given to table games players and high-end slot players.
They can include RF&B (Room, Food, and Beverage), golf packages, show tickets, and even airfare. It requires a high level of play to qualify for those things.
Joining a Baccarat Tournament
Baccarat tournaments are fun!
A typical tournament may be spread over a few different days – they are often designed to increase the number of trips from the better players (meaning the ones who play the most money) to improve the casino drop and win.
There is usually a buy-in amount, which secures entry into the first round.
The winning players from each table will qualify to play in the second round, and the winners of that round will go into the quarter-finals, then the semi-finals, and then the final.
There may be several preliminary rounds. Players knocked out in the preliminary rounds can usually rebuy into the tournament, but no further rebuy can happen once the quarter-finals are reached.
There is also usually a wild card drawing where one or two players who have not made the quarter-finals will be drawn in a random drawing and will win a place in the quarter-finals.
This is the casino's way of ensuring that many of the players who have not made the quarter-finals show up anyway in the hope of getting into the later rounds.
When players come to the casino and are waiting for the drawing, what will they do?
That's right. They're going to play Baccarat.
The rules are available to everyone, often including additional bonuses, drawings, and freebies.
There are some common mistakes I always see beginner players make. Here’s what you should avoid:
1. Chasing Losses
This is one of the worst things you can do when gambling. It means you are out of control, and the game is controlling you.
If you find yourself doing this, you must leave the table immediately.Leave the casino, preferably go outside for a walk to cool down.
Never chase. Never, never, never!
2. Not Understanding the Rules
It was always a mystery to me that the guy in the grocery store looking at the ingredients of the Bolognese sauces and choosing the one with the least sugar in it was also the guy who would happily throw $50 onto a bet he doesn't understand.
Take the time to learn how the game works and the implications of the rules.
3. Not Playing with a Strategy
It's better to be consistent with your betting. And to do that requires a strategy. It doesn't have to be complicated or require a brain like Stephen Hawking's.
It can be as simple as 'Always bet Player' and 'Never bet Tie.'
4. Commission and How not to give up too much House Advantage
As I said in the 'Bankroll distribution' section above, you may want to avoid betting on 'Banker' because even though it has the lowest HA at 1.06%, you still must pay a 5% commission on winning Banker bets.
It may make more sense to bet 'Player' where no commission is charged on a winning bet, and the House Advantage is still only 1.24%.
Both online and land-based baccarat have their fair share of advantages. It all depends on your taste.
Let's explore the key advantages of both versions:
Advantages of playing baccarat online
- Comfort – feel like playing for a half hour after dinner? No problem, you don't need to get dressed up or drive anywhere. Sit down, log in, buy-in, and start playing.
- Many online casinos offer lower minimum bets and may provide lower commission than land-based casinos.
- Game history is immediately available when you buy in to the game.
- Bonuses and promotions are often available online that may not be offered in a brick-and-mortar casino.
- There are several variations of Baccarat. Online it may be easier to find them.
- The safety of your information is ensured because online casinos use advanced encryption technology to protect you and your information.
- Security - if you win a lot of money, there is no trip to the Cage and a walk across the parking lot to worry about. Simply download the funds to your bank account.
Advantages of playing baccarat in-person
- It's a lot more fun to play with other people. The human interaction adds to the excitement and enjoyment of the game. When the table gets hot, and there are many people playing and winning, it can be exhilarating.
- Land-based casinos have amenities that you cannot get at home. Fine dining, a spa for a massage or a manicure and pedicure, high-end retail shops, and a lounge with live entertainment are all possibilities. Movie theaters and bowling are possible too.
- Face-to-face interaction with dealers and supervisors to help you play and understand the game.
- There are drawings for players, free play, match play, and comps.
There are 3 sizes of Baccarat tables in use in casinos worldwide.
The first is the same size as a Blackjack table, usually seats six players, and has the dealer standing up, just like in Blackjack. The players never touch the cards. It's called Mini-Baccarat.
The second is kidney-shaped and significantly larger. It's lower, and the dealer is seated. It is called a midi table and usually seats up to nine players. Most Baccarat these days is played on midi tables, and some casinos allow the players to 'squeeze' the cards.
The third table is a traditional 'big game.' It is about the same size as a craps table with up to 14 players. There are three dealers, two of whom are seated in the middle of the table managing the casino's bankroll, with the third dealer standing on the opposite side of the table, responsible for the shoe and running the game.
When playing baccarat, it is crucial to follow the common etiquette of the casino. This includes:
Proper Conduct at the Baccarat Table
There are only a few 'rules of etiquette' at a Baccarat table. You can start by thinking that you're going to a party at someone's house, and you don't know anyone except the host.
Be aware of the game's rules; having a newbie ask simple questions when you've got a lot of money in action is not ideal.
Treat the dealer like you would want to be treated. The dealer has no control over which cards come from the shoe or whether he should take another card.
Don't get drunk or loud, and no yelling at the other players. It's not the way to endear yourself to them.
Tipping the Dealer
Dealers in all US casinos live on their tips.
They make minimum as their base wage, so if you're having a good night, send some the dealer's way.
You can give it to them or make a small bet next to yours and let them know it's for them. It will be much appreciated.
Dealing with Other Players
Be respectful of the other players and their feelings. And be aware of the status of the game.
It's a cliché, but it happens way too often.
The entire table will be betting hundreds or even thousands with the big Player on (for example) Banker, and one Player comes to the table and bets their $10 on Player.
There are two parts to this, and both have equal merit.
First, you should always play the Banker side and pay the commission as you go.
Let's say you're betting $20 a hand.
If you're playing for the entire shoe and have a hot shoe, winning, say 50 hands out of the 80 or so per shoe, you may owe $50 or more in commission at the end of the shoe. If you're not prepared for that, it may come as a bit of a shock, especially if you've played a few hands of $50 or more and lost them.
The alternative is always to bet on the Player side. There is no commission on winning Player bets, so there are no surprises at the end of the shoe. The difference between 1.06% and 1.24% House Advantage is relatively low, and you would probably have to play every day for months for it to be significant.
Please note
Consider adding the Reverse Martingale/Paroli system to your Baccarat strategy, whichever way you choose to play. It can be very profitable if you run into a hot shoe. Whenever I play any game in the casino, I always include a version of the Paroli into the mix.
Conclusion
There's a reason Baccarat is a top-rated game in casinos worldwide. Lots of people love to play it.
It's a simple game and doesn't require any specialized knowledge or skill to play.
Plus, It has a low House Advantage, and you can play for free online, making it easier to succeed if you apply all the tips on how to win at baccarat outlined above.
Once you have learned the game and are comfortable that you know what you're betting on, you may want to go to a live casino and have a little dabble.
And good luck!
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